Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
