Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
